Foxy’s Fantasy Forecast – Week 8
Justin Fields (QB)
Projected Points: 16.67
Man, last week’s game against the Bucs was tough to watch. The only time I felt as bad for a QB as I did last Sunday was when Fields went up against the Browns D-line in Week 3. He has had absolutely no time to throw so far this season and leads the league in Sacks taken (22). If the Bears offensive staff wants to help JF1, they need to max protect him moving forward as the O-line has shown they’re incapable of protecting their QB. The 49ers have been decent against both the pass and run so far this year and have gotten to see Trey Lance in practice enough where they should be ready for any scrambling Fields does. While I feel this is a winnable matchup at home for the Bears, I just can’t trust Fields due to the awful play on the O-line and the awful play-calling/game planning by the coaching staff.
Verdict: Sit (when are they going to protect him?!)
David Montgomery (RB)
Projected Points: 0
IR. One more week Monty!
Damien Williams (RB)
Projected Points: 6.94
Williams came back from the Covid list to find that he’s been unseated as the RB2 (interim RB1) by Khalil Herbert. Williams only saw four carries last week against the tough Tampa front that Herbert was able to gash for 100 yards. I’d put him in the 5-8 carry range this week against the 49er D that ranks 17th in rush yards allowed. Not enough upside for me.
Verdict: Sit (Khalil Herbert is the lead dog now)
Khalil Herbert (RB)
Projected Points: 13.93
Herbert looked fantastic for a second straight week in a row and against one of the best rush defenses in the league in Tampa. Herbert was really the only thing working on offense for the Bears last week. The 49ers are allowing 4.3 YPC to this point in the season and I’d expect to see Herbert get another 18+ carries this week. Through this point in the season, Herbert is averaging 4.8 YPC and looks like a steal for the Bears in the 6th round this year. This will be his last start before Monty comes back, so I think he’ll want to make the most of it.
Verdict: Start (he’s the hot hand right now)
Allen Robinson (WR)
Projected Points: 11.49
In a plus matchup against a banged up secondary last week, Robinson was only able to muster two catches for 16 yards. Pure pain. Fantasy and Bear fan wise. Robinson has not topped four catches since Week 1 (6). He was only targeted four times in last week’s game showing how much he and Fields need to work on their timing and chemistry. Fields said they’ll be doing extra work this week, but will it show on the field? At this point, who knows? I don’t think you can start Robinson with any confidence at that point… “and for that reason, I’m out.” (love Shark Tank).
Verdict: Sit (just can’t play him right now)
Darnell Mooney (WR)
Projected Points: 11.40
Mooney had about as bad of a game last week as Robinson did. Fortunately he was able to connect with Fields on longer receptions than Robinson (two catches, 39 yards). San Francisco has allowed the 12th fewest points to WRs so far this year. While Mooney is getting the targets he needs to produce, he’s only got two games where he’s had 45+ yards. The Bears passing game is such a mess, you just can’t trust anyone right now.
Verdict: Sit (just can’t do it)
Cole Kmet (TE)
Projected Points: 8.18
Kmet quietly had his best game of the season last week (five catches on six targets for 43 yards). Not exactly an inspiring stat line. On top of that, the 49ers are allowing the 7th fewest points to the TE position this season. This is not a great matchup and Kmet just isn’t being utilized as a true pass catching TE in this offense. He’s only 22% rostered on Yahoo which tells you 78% of owners don’t see him as even worth a roster spot. That said, he’s not worth a start either.
Verdict: Sit (why did the Bears draft Kmet in the 2nd round??)
San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB)
Projected Points: 20.27
The Chicago kid comes home to Soldier Field as the starter while Trey Lance continues to recover from a knee injury. The Bears are in the top half of the league against QBs (13th), so I don’t see him having a breakout performance regardless of the nostalgia of playing close to his hometown. He looked bad in a rainy matchup with the Colts on Sunday night last week. The forecast looks much better for Sunday in Chicago, but I don’t see him surpassing his projected point total. There are better waiver options out there if you need a fill in.
Verdict: Sit (no thanks)
Eli Mitchell (RB)
Projected Points: 11.51
Mitchell has clearly taken the reins of this RB group. In Week 7, Mitchell racked up 107 yards on 18 carries with a TD against a good Colts D. It was a sloppy, rainy night, so it made sense that the 49ers committed to the run. The Chicago Bears rush D has been good so far this season (11th fewest points allowed to RBs). I’d anticipate the 9ers to continue to feed Mitchell as both JaMycal Hasty and Trey Sermon haven’t done anything special. Start him if you need a fill in or as a sneaky play in DFS, but be real with your expectations. If Hicks is out this week, Mitchell has upside potential.
Verdict: Start (but don’t expect a monster game)
Deebo Samuels (WR)
Projected Points: 17.76
This guy has an argument for 2021 Fantasy MVP to this point. With an ADP of #87 overall and #36 for WRs (per FantasyPros), Deebo is the WR5 through seven weeks. All four of the WRs ahead of him (Adams, Chase, Hill & Kupp) have played seven games to Deebo’s six. He’s gone for 100+ yards in three of six weeks so far with two monster performances in Week 1 (9 recs, 189 yards, 1 TD) and Week 4 (8 recs, 156 yards, 2 TDs). Side note, I was on the opposing end of that Week 4 performance in one of my leagues and lost the matchup by 2.6 pts (pain). The Bears have given up the 5th most points to WRs this season (last week against Tompa Bay was a large part of that). Deebo is and should be the focal point of the 49er offense and that won’t change this week. He’s an auto start.
Verdict: Start (auto start)
Brandon Aiyuk (WR)
Projected Points: 9.10
On the complete and total opposite end of the WR fantasy performance spectrum sits the 49er WR2: Brandon Aiyuk. Many people in fantasy had extremely high hopes for this guy after the tear he finished 2020 on. He has beyond disappointed in 2021. With an ADP of #66 overall and #23 WR (per FantasyPros), Aiyuk may be the biggest disappointment of any fantasy player through this point of the 2021 season. I don’t know what Aiyuk did to piss of Shanahan, but through six games he only has 16 targets. Yuck. Though Aiyuk has a ton of talent, which he showed last season, he’s been an afterthought in this offense. At 54% rostered across Yahoo, lots of owners have given up on him. I wouldn’t start him anywhere until he strings together a few solid weeks.
Verdict: Sit (for the foreseeable future)
George Kittle (TE)
Projected Points: OUT
Such a bummer for Kittle owners that he’s having another injury plagued season. It comes with the territory when you play like this guy does. He’s great when he’s on the field and he’s expected to be back for Week 9. Best of luck to the owners who’ve held onto him.
Verdict: OUT (IR)
Ross Dwelley (TE)
Projected Points: 2.80
Not worth a start as you can see from the projected total above. He was able to snag a TD catch in Week 4 after Kittle went out but hasn’t done much of anything in Kittle’s absence.
Verdict: Sit (no reason to start him, much better options out there)
I don’t hate starting either of these defenses in this matchup as both offenses have been subpar up to this point in the season. Aside from scoring 41 pts Week 1 against Detroit, the 49ers have scored 21 points or less in four of their other five games (28 pts against GB). Many of you have seen how bad the Bears offense has been, so I won’t even bother bringing that up. Bottom line, both of these defenses are startable this week if you need a fill in.
Good luck to all you fantasy football players in Week 8. Check back next week for another fantasy forecast against the Steelers. Could the Bears put up a fight and “steel” a W? Let’s see how they play the 49ers firs