Foxy’s Fantasy Forecast – Week 7
Justin Fields (QB)
Projected Points: 15.78
Fields is a rookie QB and has looked like it so far this season. He’s been inconsistent but shown flashes of his immense talent and potential. On two separate drives last week, we got a chance to see what the future could look like as he really put together strong drives. This week, the offense is likely to be playing from behind for the majority of the game which means the Bears will have to throw often. Fields had 27 attempts last week (a career high) and I expect that to be 30+ as the Bucs are strong against the run and have tons of holes in their secondary. The stars are aligning for what could be a breakout game for Fields this week.
Verdict: Start (this is a great matchup/game script for him)
David Montgomery (RB)
Projected Points: 0
Damien Williams (RB)
Projected Points: 3.11
Williams has cleared the Covid protocol and will suit up against the Bucs. Khalil Herbert has looked really good in his time carrying the load, but Williams will undoubtedly cut into that workload this week as the Bears will likely want to keep Herbert fresh. Regardless of how much of a workload Williams will get, it’s a rough RB matchup against the Bucs front seven.
Verdict: Sit (Khalil Herbert has looked great. No need to mess with his workload.)
Khalil Herbert (RB)
Projected Points: 9.00
Herbert looked great last week carrying the load with Williams out. Over 19 carries, he just missed hitting the centennial mark with 97 yards. He also caught a couple of passes out of the backfield to pad the stats in PPR. Unfortunately (fantasy wise), Williams will be back from the Covid list so he’ll eat into that workload. They’re also going to be facing one of the toughest run defenses in the league. Not a great matchup for Herbert or Williams this week.
Verdict: Sit (terrible matchup)
Allen Robinson (WR)
Projected Points: 11.64
I’m sorry to all your fantasy managers out there who have had to deal with Allen Robinson over the first six weeks of the season. He’s only broken double digits once this season and barely did it against the Bengals (10.4 pts.). If you’ve held onto him this long, you deserve to be rewarded and this may be the week. The Buccaneers have given up the 5th most points to fantasy WRs so far this season. They just lost Richard Sherman last week to a hamstring injury and may be without Antoine Winfield Jr. due to a concussion. With a negative game script, Fields should throw the ball 30+ times meaning 8+ targets for Robinson. Your patience should finally pay off in this awesome matchup for Robinson.
Verdict: Start (love this matchup)
Darnell Mooney (WR)
Projected Points: 10.71
Everything I said for Robinson above also goes for Mooney. He’s been Fields’s favorite target through his four starts so far this season and that shouldn’t change. I see 8+ targets for Mooney this week as well. He should have another good to great game after catching five of his eight targets for 45 yards and a TD last week against Green Bay. I’m playing Mooney in multiple DFS lineups this week and I’d encourage you to do the same.
Verdict: Start (love this matchup)
Cole Kmet (TE)
Projected Points: 7.59
Coming off his best game of the season where he saw his second highest number of targets (5), I like Kmet this week (not love). Jimmy Graham was just placed on the Covid list meaning he won’t be available for this week’s game. On top of that, Tampa Bay’s defense gives up the ninth most fantasy points to the TE position. This is going to be a pass heavy game for the Bears and the Fields/Kmet connection looks like it’s growing week to week. I like him as a dart throw in DFS this week. Start him as a Bye week fill in unless you have a better option.
Verdict: Start (in the right situation or a dart throw DFS play)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady (QB)
Projected Points: 23.69
Brady’s the goat and isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. He’s had 30+ fantasy points in four of six games this season. You know he’s the type to hold grudges and after losing one in primetime to the Bears in 2020, he’s going to be out for blood. Unfortunately for Brady, he’s going to be without Antonio Brown who’s looked like his favorite target over the last 3-4 weeks of the season. Gronk is still TBD. Unfortunately for the Bears, Brady still has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to throw to (just an insane WR room). He’s an auto start at this point regardless of his matchup.
Verdict: Start (like every Sunday)
Leonard Fournette (RB)
Projected Points: 17.32
Fournette has been a fantasy beast over the last three weeks scoring 16+ points over each game, including a 30 point explosion last Thursday against the Eagles. He’s carrying the load for Tampa and catching balls out of the backfield like a true 3-down back. The Bears have been good against the run this year, but have had a tougher time with RBs when they are catching passes in space. I expect the Bucs to give Lenny a similar workload to the one he’s been getting over the last few weeks (15+ carries, 4-5+ targets). Just based on volume and it being a big Bye week alone, he’s a must start.
Verdict: Start (like the Bucs, ride the hot hand)
Ronald Jones II (RB)
Projected Points: 3.96
Since dealing with some fumble issues early in the season, Jones has been in the dog house, big time. He hasn’t received more than six carries in any game this season. Lenny is the clear RB1 on TB and that doesn’t change here. Jones probably shouldn’t be on your roster.
Verdict: Sit (shouldn’t even be rostered)
Mike Evans (WR)
Projected Points: 16.67
Mike Evans is one of the top 2-3 WRs in the NFL based on size, speed, talent combo. However, he is one of those guys who can put up an absolute dud out of nowhere like he did last week against the Eagles (4.7 pts.). Prior to that game, Evans had a four game hot streak where he put up 14+ pts. Two of those games were 24+ point games. That’s one of the problems when you have so many mouths to feed. Without AB in the lineup this week, Evans should see another high target total like 10+. In those games, he eats. Though I think he’ll see a heavy dose of Jaylon Johnson shadowing him in this game, he’s a great play purely based on the volume of targets he should see.
Verdict: Start (targets = opportunities = good weeks)
Chris Godwin (WR)
Projected Points: 17.43
Godwin has had a very similar season to Evans so far. Four games of 14+ points and two games where he didn’t break 10 points. I love him this week as his matchup will be great. With Jaylon Johnson likely to shadow Mike Evans, Godwin will have exploitable matchups all day long. He’ll line up in the slot the majority of the game and Brady loves to throw over the middle, especially in the red zone. Godwin has been a target monster in the red zone but has only converted that to two TDs this season. I see him pulling down at least one TD this week, maybe even two.
Verdict: Start (great matchup for him this week)
Cameron Brate (TE)
Projected Points: 7.40
With Gronkowski already ruled out of the Week 7 matchup with the Bears, Brate will have another opportunity to start this week. OJ Howard should also get some PT, but Brate seems to have a good connection with Brady. The Bears have given up the fifth fewest points to the TE position so far this season, so it’ll be a tough matchup for him. There are many better options out there at the TE position, so I wouldn’t advise giving Brate the start this week
Verdict: Sit (Evans, Godwin and Fournette limit his upside)
Though I said I felt like this was a great week for Fields, this could also be a great week for TB’s defense as the Bears O-line continues to struggle. Fields has also shown a tendency to hold the ball a bit longer than he should which will give the Tampa front seven time to get to him. If they don’t do a good job of giving Fields time, this could get out of hand fast. On the Bears side, this is going to be a tough test for them against Brady in a mini-revenge game. Brady hates to lose more than maybe anyone in professional sports. After last season’s embarrassing loss, he’s going to want to put up some points on the Bears. That said, I’m out on the Bears D though they have been playing well.
Good luck to all you fantasy football players in Week 7. Check back next week for another fantasy forecast against the 49ers. This could be a game the Bears can steal.