Foxy’s Fantasy Forecast – Week 5

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Chicago Bears:

Justin Fields (QB)

Projected Points: 19.46

It’s finally official, Justin Fields is the starting quarterback for the Chicago Bears for the remainder of this season. Not sure who got in Nagy’s ear, but I’m glad they did. With the added reps and starts, Fields will get his opportunity to develop into an NFL QB. The Raiders finally looked like the Raiders last week against the Chargers. Justin Herbert had a game and established himself as one of the premier young QB talents in the league. This is a game where Fields will need to leverage short routes which is something that Herbert did last week. That’s a staple of the Bears offensive gameplan, so if he executes, he should have a nice day.

Verdict: Start (the Bears are doing it)

David Montgomery (RB)

Projected Points: 0

Out for the next few weeks. Let’s hope he’s back and healthy soon.

Verdict: OUT

Damien Williams (RB)

Projected Points: 12.75

This is the opportunity Williams was looking for when he signed his one year deal with the Bears after taking a season off. He’s been extremely effective in his limited role thus far this season. In Ekeler’s game against the Raiders last week, he was able to rip off 7.8 YPC with 3 catches for 28 yards. The Bears have shown they like to leverage a single back in their offense. I love Williams this week as he can catch and has shown he’s a workhorse back from his time with the Chiefs. I’m playing him all over my DFS lineups.

Verdict: Start (should be a nice day for DW)

Allen Robinson (WR)

Projected Points: 12.29

A-Rob has continued his rough season. While he’s pulled down a few tough catches from Fields the last two weeks, he hasn’t been targeted at the same rate he has in seasons past. I love Robinson, but it looks like Fields has a better connecting with Mooney right now. After seeing Keenan Allen being held to seven catches for 36 yards, I’m not bullish on A-Rob this week. If  you picked him in fantasy, you’re likely upset with his season. It’s time to look for other options and take a wait and see approach with him.

Verdict: Sit (until he starts getting the number of targets he used to)

Darnell Mooney (WR)

Projected Points: 11.35

The Fields to Mooney connection looks like the future of the Chicago Bears organization. They are clearly on the same page after Mooney pulled down five catches for 125 yards last week against the Detroit Lions. Mooney is clearly the first read for Fields in this offense which bodes well for his fantasy potential. With another seven targets last week, Mooney is averaging about six targets per week. Thing is, those are high value, downfield targets. 

Verdict: Start (he’s WR1 right now)

Cole Kmet (TE)

Projected Points: 7.24

Kmet put up another stinker last week finishing with one catch for six yards off of three targets. It is crazy to see how little he’s being used as a pass catcher after being a 2nd round pick a couple of years ago. While Kmet is a good blocker, he needs to be targeted more in the offense to justify any consideration in fantasy. This could be a good week for him after seeing Jared Cook burn the Raiders for six catches, 70 yards and a TD. I’m not starting him anywhere. I wouldn’t waste a roster spot on him and I don’t advice you do.

Verdict: Sit (until they start to actually use him)

Jimmy Graham (TE)

Projected Points: 3.45

Not worth talking about anymore. He’s rarely seeing snaps much less getting any targets. This is the end of Jimmy G’s career. 

Verdict: Sit (without question)

Las Vegas Raiders

Derek Carr (QB)

Projected Points: 20.91

Carr finally came back to earth last week after a scolding hot start to the season that saw him leading the league in passing yard through three weeks. Against a tough Chargers secondary, he wasn’t able to top 200 yards (196, 2 TDs, 1 INT). The Bears secondary (outside of Jaylon Johnson) is not nearly as good as the Chargers’ secondary, so I anticipate Carr to get back to work this week. He’s been great at home so far. If the Bears defensive front can’t get good pressure on Carr, he should be able to pick them apart.

Verdict: Start (he should have another good day Sunday)

Josh Jacobs (RB)

Projected Points: 13.16

Jacobs came back from a two week absence last week to 18 touches compiling a mere 57 yards against a Chargers D that has allowed some healthy fantasy weeks to RBs. He’s a script dependent type of player meaning he eats when the Raiders are ahead. Gruden loves to pound the ball with the RB when they’re ahead, so if the Raider get out to a lead, Jacobs will likely see 20+ carries. If they’re playing from behind, we’ll see more Kenyon Drake. I think they’ll be ahead most of the game, so I expect 20+ opportunities for Jacobs which is a good thing.

Verdict: Start (game script will dictate his fantasy performance)

Kenyon Drake (RB)

Projected Points: 12.10

Drake was brought in as a change of pace back to compliment Jacobs and has been relegated to a lesser role over the last few weeks with Peyton Barber coming onto the scene. He only had one carry for two yards last week with Jacobs back in the lineup, so I’m not convinced he’ll get much usage even if the Raiders do fall behind. Bringing Drake in was a head scratcher for many in the off season. His usage the last two weeks only make it more difficult to understand what Gruden and Mayock were thinking with the signing.

Verdict: Sit (what are the Raiders doing with him?)

Henry Ruggs (WR)

Projected Points: 12.81

Ruggs is one of the ultimate boom or bust WRs in the NFL. Everyone knows about his speed as he ran one of the fastest 40s in combine history. With 25 targets through four weeks, the Raiders are clearly trying to get the ball in his hands on those deep routes to get him the type of looks warranted for a 1st round WR talent. Carr throws a great deep ball and looks like he’s forged a good bond with his WR1. All it takes is one long reception for a TD to make Ruggs’ day and that’s something Carr and Ruggs do well. He’s a worthy dart throw with the number of targets he’s been getting.

Verdict: Start (boom or bust)

Hunter Renfrow (WR)

Projected Points: 11.39

Renfrow has quietly positioned himself as one of the most reliable and effective slot WRs in the NFL over the last two seasons. It’s clear that Carr has a ton of trust in him and he has proven to be capable of handling a large workload with a lot of targets. He’s had 30 targets through four games this season and has had 10.7+ points in every game this season. I love Renfrow as a DFS target this week against the Bears D as slot WRs have done really well against the Bears nickel corners all season.

Verdict: Start (especially in PPR formats)

Darren Waller (TE)

Projected Points: 17.82

There’s only one TE in the league that I like more than Darren Waller and it’s Travis Kelce. Aside from him, Waller is the best TE in the league. The Bears historically have been terrible against good TEs like this. He’s a great play this week. He’s been great so far this season. There’s really nothing to think about here. He’s a green light every single week.

Verdict: Start (he’s a top-2 TE in the NFL, start him)

Other Notes:

Both of these team defenses have flashes. I like the Raiders a bit more than the Bears in this matchup, but am not enthusiastic about either of them. I’m thinking it will be a 23-27 game with the Raiders coming away with a W. 

Good luck to all you fantasy football players in Week 5. Check back next week for another fantasy forecast against the Raiders.

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