Foxy’s Fantasy Forecast – Week 4

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Chicago Bears

Justin Fields (QB)

Projected Points: 20.49

Justin Fields could not have had a worse NFL debut than he did last week. He finished with fewer points last week than he did in Week 1 where he only played about 10 snaps. Matt Nagy’s game plan was so bad that you have to throw this game out the window and forget about it. As we at BDR love Ted Lasso, “Be a goldfish” with Fields first start. That said, the Lions have allowed the 8th most points to QBs so far this season. I wouldn’t personally give him the green light in a 1 QB league, but 2 QB leagues and DFS he could be a sneaky awesome play with the speculation that Bill Lazor will be calling plays this Sunday.

Verdict: Start (in DFS and 2 QB leagues)

Andy Dalton (QB)

Projected Points: 0

Dalton was a limited participant in practice this week. That knee injury should keep him out this week as the speculation is that Fields will get his second start.

Verdict: Sit

David Montgomery (RB)

Projected Points: 15.43

Fellow BDR contributor asked over Twitter whether or not he should start Monty and A-Rob this week after last week’s debacle. I say yes. The Lion’s have played tough so far this season against some good opponents, but are allowing the 10th most points to the RB position through week 3. Monty also gashed the Lions for 27.1 points in Week 11 last year. After last week’s god awful game plan, we should see a heavy dose of Montgomery this week.

Verdict: Start (he’s due for his 2021 breakout performance)

Damien Williams (RB)

Projected Points: 5.80

Williams had zero involvement last week. When the offense puts up only 47 yards the entire game, it typically does not bode well for the RB2. This should be a game where the Bears will get him more involved as they should have a much better game plan and time of possession. I wouldn’t start him anywhere, but he’s still a guy who can contribute in spurts. 

Verdict: Sit

Allen Robinson (WR)

Projected Points: 14.69

A-Rob has had a very tough start to the season through three weeks. His target volume (21 through three weeks) is still decent, but he has yet to turn that into fantasy production. As we saw in the Lions last game, they can be beat through the air. Had Hollywood Brown not dropped two sure TDs in that game, their stats would be way worse against WRs. Last season Robinso had two decent games against the Lions in Week 1 and 11 (5 recs for 74 yds & 7 recs for 75 yds). I expect him to bust out in his first big performance of 2021. As he was likely your 3rd or 4th rounder, DO NOT sit him. He’s a start even though he’s had a rough three weeks to start the season.

Verdict: Start (the connection w/ Fields should get better after another week of practice)

Darnell Mooney (WR)

Projected Points: 12.08

Mooney’s 19 targets through three weeks is something to be happy with even though he was only able to convert four targets last week to one reception for nine yards. With Bill Lazor calling plays, Mooney will almost certainly be put in a better position to succeed in Week 4. He had four receptions for 43 yards in Week 11 last year against the Lions. I’m hoping he sees a couple of deep targets this week like Hollywood Brown did last week. If he does, he should convert those into a solid fantasy performance in Week 4.

Verdict: Start (there’s potential for a breakout game this week)

Cole Kmet (TE)

Projected Points: 9.11

Week 11’s game against Detroit in 2020 was the Cole Kmet coming out party. He saw seven targets, caught five passes and had a TD (14.7 pts). That was his first game as a Bear seeing more than three targets in a game. After catching only one pass on four targets for 11 yards last week, look for Bill Lazor to get Kmet more involved. He could be a sneaky DFS play this week.

Verdict: Start (in DFS or if you’re strapped for a TE)

Jimmy Graham (TE)

Projected Points: 3.45

Graham has a whopping 2.1 fantasy pts … on the season! He’s only had three targets through three weeks and didn’t even get a target in Week 2. The Bears have fully transitioned to Cole Kmet at this point making everyone wonder – why is Jimmy Graham even on the roster? His contract looks worse by the week. Especially when you consider they let Kyle Fuller go to keep Jimmy on the roster.

Verdict: Sit (this may be the last week we even talk about him from a fantasy perspective)

Detroit Lions

Jared Goff (QB)

Projected Points: 19.16

Goff is averaging 41 pass attempts/game (thanks to 57 attempts in Week 1) and is completing 70% of his passes through three weeks. He put up a monster game in a negative game script Week 1 against the Niners and a stinker in a neutral game script against the Ravens last week as he went into game manager mode. He had a decent game against the Bears last season while with the Rams, but he’s with a completely different team in the Lions this year. If the Bears go up big, he could pad his stats in garbage time. I’m anticipating a closer game though. That said, I’m out on Goff this week as the Bears D is allowing the 11th fewest points to opposing QBs so far this season (even with the monster game from Stafford Week 1).

Verdict: Sit (no thanks)

D’Andre Swift (RB)

Projected Points: 17.99

Through three weeks, Swift is averaging just under 20 pts/game (19.96/game) and is looking great catching balls out of the backfield. He’s caught 19 passes on 23 targets with 166 yds and a TD. Talk about an excellent PPR RB option. The Bears looked great against the run last week vs. the Browns, but Kareem Hunt was still able to pull down six catches for 74 yards. Swift will likely be involved in a very similar way making him a good fantasy start in PPR formats.

Verdict: Start (he’s a PPR monster)

Jamaal Williams (RB)

Projected Points: 9.82

Williams stayed in the NFC North moving from Green Bay last season to Detroit this season. He has had a great start to the year averaging 15.46 pts/game. He’s been featured in the passing game nearly as much as Swift has through three weeks. If the Lions are playing from behind (like they should be), he’s a great option to fill out a depleted fantasy roster.

Verdict: Start (unless you have a better option, but a sneaky DFS play)

Quintez Cephus (WR)

Projected Points: 10.18

Cephus had a couple of nice games in Week 1 & 2 with a TD in each game. Last week he was held to just one catch for eight yards. The Detroit offense runs through their two RBs and their TE, so I’m not super high on any of their WRs. Cephus has shown flashes but I wouldn’t start him in any formats until he proves more.

Verdict: Sit (not a focal point of the offense)

Kalif Raymond (WR)

Projected Points: 7.83

Raymond had two slow weeks to start the season. He was a much bigger part of the offense in Week 3 with 10 targets though. If he can get that type of target share every week, he could turn into a volume play. Until that happens, I’m not playing him anywhere.

Verdict: Sit (but keep an eye on him)

TJ Hockenson (TE)

Projected Points: 8.68

Hockenson is the most important pass catcher on the Lions. He had back to back HUGE fantasy weeks to start the season (20 targets, 16 catches, 2 TDs), but was held in check Week 3 against the Ravens (2 catches for 10 yards). The Bears have historically been a poor defense against TEs. That said, Hockules could be in for a big week against the Bears. Considering he was likely a 4th/5th round pick for your team, he’s a must start.

Verdict: Start (he’s a top-5 TE in the NFL, start him)

Other Notes:

Both of these teams offenses are average at best. You could start either defense with confidence if you’re in a pinch for a Week 4 D. Neither are priced high in DFS, so feel free to take a flyer on either as a low cost alternative to help you pay up for studs like Mahomes, Kelce, Henry, Kamara, etc. If I had to pick one, I’m leaning towards the Bears. However, the Lions D put on an impressive game against Lamar Jackson last week, so they could come through against a poor Bears O in Week 4.

Good luck to all you fantasy football players in Week 4. Check back next week for another fantasy forecast against the Raiders.

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