Foxy’s Fantasy Forecast – Week 16

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Chicago Bears

Nick Foles (QB)

Projected Points: 12.92

With Fields out due to an injury, Nick Foles will start Sunday. Considering he hasn’t had a start in over 14 months, there’s not a whole lot to get excited about here. Don’t even consider him as a spot start here.

Verdict: Sit (sigh)

David Montgomery (RB)

Projected Points: 14.19

The Seahawks run D has allowed the 2nd most points to RBs this season and, again, are without their top defender in Jamal Adams. Nagy should give Montgomery 25+ carries in this game. If Nagy does, Monty should have a monster game. I’m playing Monty in as many DFS lineups as I can because this is a smash spot for the Bears RB1.

Verdict: Start (incredible matchup)

Allen Robinson (WR)

Projected Points: 8.65

After sitting out last week due to Covid, it’s still up in the air whether or not Robinson will suit up this week. 

Verdict: Sit (just not worth it)

Darnell Mooney (WR)

Projected Points: 11.75

Mooney rebounded last week for five catches and 63 yards. Not great, but serviceable from a PPR perspective. The Seahawks have allowed the 12th fewest points to the WR position and he’ll have Nick Foles throwing the ball to him. That said, no thanks.

Verdict: Sit (nope)

Cole Kmet (TE)

Projected Points: 7.04

Kmet had a solid six catches for 71 yards last week. While that was his second highest yardage output on the season, he (like the rest of the Bears receivers in this game) will have Nick Foles throwing him the ball and Matt Nagy calling plays. While Kmet has been more involved in the passing game lately, this is a decent matchup with the Seahawks allowing the 6th most points to the TE position and he’s cheap in DFS, he’s just too inconsistent.

Verdict: Sit (consistency is the issue here)

Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson (QB)

Projected Points: 23.14

2021 has been another Russ Wilson season where he started out super hot (Weeks 1-4), got injured Week 5 and has been mostly awful since (outside of a couple of games against WAS & HOU). He’s still clicked with Tyler Lockett but has not been able to get his connection with DK Metcalf going over the last 6-8 weeks. After a total stinker against the Rams last week, he’ll look to get back on track against a Bears D that’s allowing the 7th most points to the position. I’ve got very little confidence in Russ at the moment, so count me out.

Verdict: Sit (just not confident in Russ right now)

Rashaad Penny (RB)

Projected Points: 11.56

After exploding two weeks ago against the Houston Texans for an overall RB1 finish, Penny came back to Earth last week against the Rams. While Alex Collins will be available for this game, Penny should still be in line for 15+ catches. The Bears D has given up the 15th fewest points to the RB position this season, so they’ve been middle of the road. Penny has been injured most of his pro career, so I’m always weary of putting him in a lineup. I’m out on starting him, even in DFS.

Verdict: Sit (total boom or bust guy)

DK Metcalf (WR)

Projected Points: 14.63

From Weeks 1-8, DK was a top 10 WR in fantasy. Since the Week 9 bye, DK has been one of the worst fantasy WRs in the league. While the targets remain high (~8 targets/game), it seems like DK and Russ are just not on the same page. The Bears D hasn’t performed great against opposing WRs, but with DK’s lackluster fantasy outputs over the last two months, it’s hard to have any faith in him as a fantasy asset.

Verdict: Sit (recent play gives me zero confidence in this physical beast)

Tyler Lockett (WR)

Projected Points: 13.26

After missing last week’s game to Covid, Lockett will likely be back in the lineup against a Bears D that has been in the bottom quarter of the league against the WR position. Lockett has been Russ Wilson’s favorite target throughout the season, so he should see good volume if he’s fully ready to go. He’s probably the only Seahawk I feel confident in starting this week. However, we have seen him bust nearly as many times as he’s boomed in the past. Careful.

Verdict: Start (more likely to boom than bust)

Gerald Everett (TE)

Projected Points: 8.57

Everett moved to Seattle from the Rams in the off season in hopes of getting more involved on offense. Over the last six weeks, he’s been super involved averaging 5.5 targets/game. The Bears have continued to play well against the TE position throughout this season, so it’s not a great matchup for him. 

Verdict: Start (secondary injuries could lead to a solid start)

Other Notes:

Neither of these offenses are playing especially well right now. With Nick Foles under center for the Bears, it might be a good week to take a shot with the Seahawks D. With the game being played in Seattle, it’s probably not a great matchup for the Bears D as the Seahawks offense seems to play much better at home. 

On a defense related note: Roquan Smith was AGAIN robbed of a Pro Bowl spot in favor of Bobby Wagner. I’m so f***ing sick of hearing how great Wagner is when I see Roquan Smith every week playing like a man possessed. Roquan Smith > Bobby Wagner.

Good luck to all you fantasy football players in Week 16 of your league’s playoffs. Next week the Bears host the New York Giants in a game that should be good for the Bears offense. Finally. Also, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone out there! Thanks for reading the Bear Down Report! We really appreciate your support!

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