Foxy’s Fantasy Forecast – Week 13

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Chicago Bears

Justin Fields (QB)

Projected Points: OUT

Justin Fields will sit again this week due to his cracked ribs. Glad the Bears are prioritizing the rookie’s health and safety for the future in this dud of a season.

Verdict: OUT

Andy Dalton (QB)

Projected Points: 17.81

With Fields resting up his fractured ribs for another week, Andy Dalton will get the start for the Bears in this tough matchup against a Cardinals D that is allowing the 3rd fewest fantasy points to QBs this season. With two of the top 10 pass rushers in sacks this season in Golden and Jones, the Bears O-line will have their hands full all day. On top of that, it’s supposed to be a windy day at Soldier Field only making Dalton’s job more difficult. This is a no-start spot under any circumstances.

Verdict: Sit (awful matchup)

David Montgomery (RB)

Projected Points: 12.62

Matt Nagy has been giving D Mont a good sized workload in each of his three games since returning about a month ago. Unfortunately, that hasn’t translated into many fantasy points as Monty’s highest score since returning was 10.4 points last week against a Detroit Lions team that is one of the worst in the NFL against the run. With the Cardinals allowing the 14th fewest points to RBs, this is a much tougher matchup for Monty. With the windy conditions at Soldier Field it’d be wise of Nagy to stick to the ground game. Start him unless you have better options on your squad.

Verdict: Start (but temper your expectations) 

Khalil Herbert (RB)

Projected Points: 2.38

He’s gotten nine carries over the last three weeks. Herbert is not an option with Montgomery back against a tough D. Sit’m.

Verdict: Sit (poor offense + RB2 workload = bad start)

Allen Robinson (WR)

Projected Points: OUT

Robinson will sit again this week as he tries to recover from his injury. I’m not sure if Robinson is very invested in getting on the field with the lack of opportunity he’s seen and the poor play he’s put on tape. He’s likely gone in the off season, sadly.

Verdict: OUT

Darnell Mooney (WR)

Projected Points: 13.81

Darnell Mooney has clearly established himself as the WR1 for the Bears this season. In the last three weeks he’s been hyper targeted and while the efficiency has been pretty terrible, the overall fantasy production has been really good. With back to back 100+ yard games, Mooney is one of the hottest WRs in the NFL right now. Though the Cardinals are allowing the 8th fewest points to the WR position, Mooney is the only WR on the Bears getting the type of volume necessary to warrant a start.

Verdict: Start (gotta play the hot hand)

Cole Kmet (TE)

Projected Points: 9.60

Cole Kmet finally saw the type of target volume a 2nd round TE should see last week against the Lions. He turned an insane 11 targets into 8 catches for 65 yards and a very respectable fantasy day finishing as a top 12 TE. The Cardinals are allowing the 2nd fewest points to the TE position though, so this is a tough matchup for him. That said, I’d still expect him to see good target volume with Robinson and Goodwin out of this game.

Verdict: Sit (bad matchup)

Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray (QB)

Projected Points: 22.79

Kyler is finally back from his three game absence due to an ankle injury. The former fantasy QB1 looks poised to get back to work against a Bears D that is banged up. With guys like Hicks and Mack both out, it’ll be tough for the Bears to get any pressure on Kyler. Roquan Smith will be relied on heavily to spy Kyler and try to minimize any gains on the ground. The wind will also be a factor as the conditions are not supposed to be great for passing this week. Even though he’s coming back from injury, Murray is one of the most explosive playmakers in the entire NFL and for that reason, he’s a must start. 

Verdict: Start (all day, every day)

James Conner (RB)

Projected Points: 18.00

Since losing Chase Edmonds to an injury a few weeks back, James Conner has taken over as the unquestioned lead RB for the Cardinals. In those games, he’s had 15+ points each week including a 40-point explosion three weeks ago. With the Bears being a middle of the pack rush defense and the Cardinals boasting so many playmakers, it’s difficult to keep everyone on the Cardinals from going off each week. The Bears D will likely key on Kyler first and foremost leaving an opportunity for Conner to have a good game on the ground. With Conner shouldering the full RB1 workload, he’s a great play this week.

Verdict: Start (quality volume play)

Chase Edmonds (RB)

Projected Points: OUT

On IR right now. 

Verdict: OUT

Deandre Hopkins (WR)

Projected Points: 14.42

Like Kyler, Deandre Hopkins has sat out the last three weeks due to a hamstring injury. He’ll get back out on the field this week in a plus matchup against a Bears team that’s allowing the 8th most points to the WR position. While soft tissue injuries like this are very difficult to judge, I doubt the Cardinals would let D-Hop start this week if they weren’t sure he’s close at or close to 100% as they make their playoff push. He’s a target hog and one of the best in the entire NFL to do it, so when he’s healthy, he’s gotta be in your lineup.

Verdict: Start (he’s a WR1 whenever he’s on the field)

Christian Kirk (WR)

Projected Points: 12.30

In Hopkins’ absence, Chistian Kirk has seen solid target volume and has put up a couple of solid fantasy performances. With Colt McCoy favoring mostly short passes while filling in for Kyler, Kirk didn’t see as many deep targets as he typically does with Kyler under center. I’d think that will change in the coming weeks, but there’s no way to know how many deep shots Kyler will take if the wind is whipping at Soldier. With D-Hop back in the lineup, Kirk will have more room for targets as much of the secondary’s attention will shift to Hopkins. The same here can be said for AJ Green and Rondale Moore as well. This Cardinals team is just stocked with offensive talent.

Verdict: Start (he could be in line for a good game today with D-Hop back)

Zach Ertz (TE)

Projected Points: 11.49

Since joining the Cardinals, Zach Ertz has looked pretty good including an absolute explosion last week (8 catches on 9 targets for 88 yards and 2 TDs). He also scored in his first game as a Cardinal with Kyler at QB. Adding a versatile veteran TE like Ertz for their playoff push was a great move by the Cardinals and it has shown so far. While the Bears have been tough against the TE this season allowing the 8th fewest points, they have been exposed before. Just a couple of weeks ago Mark Andrews went off against them. With the number of weapons the Bears will need to cover this week, it’s very possible for Ertz to get loose for a big game.

Verdict: Start (but know there are a lot of mouths to feed for AZ)

Other Notes

As you can probably guess, the Bears D is a shit play this week against one of the most explosive offenses in the entire league. If the weather turns out to be bad, it could be a blessing in disguise for this Bears D. On the other side, the Cardinals boast one of the better defenses in the entire NFL with two of the top pass rushers in the league. I’d start the Cardinals and sit the Bears on defense this week. Simple as that.

Good luck to all you fantasy football players in Week 13. Next week the Bears take on the Packers for Round 2 of the 2021 rivalry. Hopefully the Bears can help immunize Rodgers against a W at Lambeau.

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