Foxy’s Fantasy Forecast – Week 12
Justin Fields (QB)
Projected Points: OUT
The rest of this season needs to be devoted to the development of JF1. The Bears should definitely keep him out of this game and give him the opportunity to rest up.
Andy Dalton (QB)
Projected Points: 16.38
Dalton came in late in last week’s Ravens game and helped to give the Bears a fighting chance with two TD passes. Even though he only played about a half of football, he finished with just over 200 yards on 11/23 passing which was good for 18 fantasy points. With the short week and a matchup with the Lions, Dalton could be a sneaky spot start in DFS lineups. I’d stay away from him in redraft leagues as there are unquestionably better options available to you.
Verdict: Sit (unless you want to give him a shot in DFS as a sneaky, cheap play)
David Montgomery (RB)
Projected Points: 16.09
Montgomery didn’t have a great week last week, but he was only given 14 carries with one catch. Only giving Montgomery 15 touches when your QB1 is out is a crime. These are the types of calls that Nagy can point to when he’s out as HC. Hopefully he’ll remember that he has a workhorse back this week as the Detroit Lions are giving up the 3rd most points to the RB position. This game is a smash play in fantasy for Monty. He’ll likely be the highest rostered RB in the Thanksgiving DFS slate and is an auto start in redraft for Thanksgiving.
Verdict: Start (Monty should feast this week)
Khalil Herbert (RB)
Projected Points: 4.06
Herbert finished last week with ONE carry for zero yards. Not only did Nagy not give Monty enough carries, but he didn’t get Herbert involved at all. The Bears have a pretty good 1-2 punch at RB here and I can’t wait to see how the next coach uses it. The Bears SHOULD run the ball 50 times in this game as the Lions Run D is that bad. If you look at what the Eagles did to them a few weeks ago, it’s clear what the game plan should be. If that happens, Herbert could be in line for a half dozen or more carries which would be great to see. I don’t have enough confidence to give him a start though.
Verdict: Sit (he needs touches)
Allen Robinson (WR)
Projected Points: 10.19
A-Rob ended up sitting out of last week’s game due to a hamstring issue. We all know those types of soft tissue injuries can be tricky and lead to extended periods of time out. On top of that, Robinson remained on the sideline for today’s practice. His season has already been brutally inconsistent and disappointing. Regardless of the matchup, Robinson needs to prove he can be the dominant target hog he once was before you can start him again.
Verdict: Sit (for the foreseeable future)
Darnell Mooney (WR)
Projected Points: 16.11
Darnell had his most productive and inefficient game of the season last week. He had a ridiculous 16 targets and was only able to pull down 5 catches. One of those five catches was a screen pass that Mooney took 60 yards to the house while breaking a few tackles along the way. It was a glorious example of what he can do if you can get the ball in his hands with some space. With Robinson out, Mooney has separated himself as the WR1 on this team. Mooney is getting one of the highest target shares in the league with 28.3%. When a guy gets that kind of volume of opportunities, you have to start him.
Verdict: Start (volume, volume, volume)
Cole Kmet (TE)
Projected Points: 8.80
Right after a nice game in Week 9 against the Steelers, Kmet puts up another absolute stinker in fantasy. One catch on two targets for 12 yards against an opponent who was allowing the 3rd most points to the TE position coming into Week 11 is embarrassing. I don’t lay that entirely at Kmet’s feet though as we all know Nagy is incapable of putting together a game plan that exploits an opponent’s weaknesses. I started him in DFS hoping for 10 points and it was a disappointing performance in a winnable matchup. The Lions are giving up the 11th fewest points to the TE position so this is a tougher matchup. Either way, I have zero confidence in the Bears ability to use Kmet properly.
Verdict: Start (DFS and streaming TE)
Jared Goff (QB)
Projected Points: 16.06
Goff had a decent outting against the Bears in Week 4 finishing with 299 yards with 2 TDs on 24/38 passing attempts. However, Goff sat out last week’s game due to an oblique issue that he and the team are calling a game time decision. If Goff plays, I’m not confident enough to play him as he’ll be dealing with that oblique issue. If he doesn’t play, I’m not going anywhere near whoever the Lions trot out there in his place.
Verdict: Sit (yea, no thanks)
D’Andre Swift (RB)
Projected Points: 20.21
After topping 130 yards rushing in each of the last two weeks against the Steelers and Browns, Swift is likely to carry a high roster percentage in DFS. Swift has had 16+ fantasy points in seven of his ten games this season. When the Lions get him the ball, he produces. It’s unfortunate for him he’s on the Lions because he could be an absolute fantasy beast with a better offense. Either way, he’s a reliable starting RB.
Verdict: Start (he’s so reliable)
Jamaal Williams (RB)
Projected Points: 7.27
After sitting out weeks 8-10, Williams came back to seven carries for 11 yards last week. It was an unproductive return for Williams in a close game with a tough Browns D. With Swift showing out while Williams was sidelined, I don’t know if he’ll garner much more of a workload than he did last week moving forward. His ceiling is likely 7-8 carries/game for the rest of the season unless something were to happen to Swift.
Verdict: Sit (he’s now a distant RB2 to Swift’s RB1)
Kalif Raymond (WR)
Projected Points: 9.63
Raymond had a pretty good fantasy day against the Bears in Week 4 catching three of six targets for 46 yards and 2 TDs. He’s basically slotted into the WR1 spot since the Lions lost Quintez Cephus with Amon-Ra St. Brown playing the WR2 slot. As the Bears secondary has looked awful the past several weeks and are allowing the 6th most points to the WR position, Raymond could be a sneaky DFS play on the Thanksgiving slate.
Verdict: Start (in DFS or deeper leagues)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR)
Projected Points: 9.37
Over the last three weeks, St. Brown has averaged five targets/game as the WR2. He’s still yet to have a TD catch this season, but has clearly impressed the Lions QBs and staff enough to get regular playing time. While he’s had a couple of fantasy relevant performances so far this season, the majority of his games have been underwhelming. He could be a cheap dart throw in DFS, but I’ll likely stay away even with how bad the Bears CBs have been playing.
Verdict: Sit (there are better options out there)
TJ Hockenson (TE)
Projected Points: 8.68
Hockenson has been one of the more disappointing high draft picks this season for fantasy. He had a rough three game streak (Weeks 3-5), picked it back up from (Weeks 6-8), put up a goose egg against the Steelers Week 10 and put up 11 points against the Browns last week. He’s been wildly inconsistent so far this season. He’s also got a tough matchup against the Bears who are allowing the 8th fewest points to the TE position. However, Mark Andrews had a heck of a week at Soldier Field in Week 11. Which Hockenson will we see this week?
Verdict: Start (but temper expectations)
Feel free to start Bears D this week as they only allowed 14 points against the Lions in Week 4 and seem to always have their number. On the other side, I wouldn’t blame you for starting the Lions D either as we all know how bad the Bears offense has looked this season. It should be an ugly one which always bodes well for the defense.
Good luck to all you fantasy football players in Week 12. Next week will be a matchup between the Bears and a former Chicago squad in the Ravens. If Kyler is back, it will likely be an ugly one for the Bears.